Items of Interest - July 8, 2006
A THIRD OF US ARE WORRIED ABOUT MONTHLY PAYMENTS: One out of three Americans worries that rising monthly payments - especially property taxes and energy costs - will force them to sell their home and buy a less expensive one, according to a survey by the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The survey also found that, by a 2-to-1 margin, Americans believe that high monthly payments rather than high down payments are the greatest obstacle to buying a home. Rising property taxes are the leading concern associated with owning a home (34 percent), followed by increasing electrical, fuel and other energy costs (28 percent). Only 14 percent said rising mortgage interest rates would keep them from becoming home owners. In 2003, the average monthly mortgage principal and interest payment was $840. In 2005, families were paying 23.8 percent more, or $1,040 monthly. In the past year alone, the average monthly mortgage principal and interest payment has gone up 11.5 percent - from $1,015 in April 2005 to $1,132 in April 2006.
SALES EASE OF PREVIOUSLY OWNED HOMES: Total existing-home sales - including single-family, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops - dipped 1.2 percent from April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.67 million units and were 6.6 percent below May of last year. Commented David Lereah, NAR's chief economist: "There's now a clear pattern of slower home-sales activity in many higher cost markets, which are more sensitive to rises in interest rates, and higher home sales in moderately priced areas which have experienced job growth. Although mortgage interest rates remain historically low, the uptrend in interest rates this year is affecting those buyers who are at the margins of affordability." The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $230,000 in May, up 6 percent from May 2005, when the median was $217,000. "Overall price appreciation has returned to normal levels as the supply of homes on the market has risen to a balanced range," Lereah said. Total housing inventory levels rose 5.5 percent at the end of May, representing a 6.5-month supply at the current sales pace. Existing condominium and cooperative housing sales rose 1.9 percent in May but were 6.6 percent below the prior May. The median existing condo price was $229,300 in May, up 1.9 percent from a year earlier. Single-family home sales slipped 1.5 percent from April and were 6.6 percent below May 2005. The median existing single-family home price was $229,700 in May, up 6.4 percent from a year ago. Single-family home sales slipped 1.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.82 million in May from 5.91 million in April, and were 6.6 percent below the 6.23 million-unit level in May 2005. The median existing single-family home price was $229,700 in May, up 6.4 percent from a year ago.
NEW-HOME SALES UNEXPECTEDLY BOOM: They rose 4.6 percent between April and May, according to figures reported by the U.S. Census Department. "If the sales gain in today's report holds true, it's likely due at least partly to the extra efforts that builders are making to attract the many potential buyers who are still out there," noted David Pressly, president of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). "Many are stepping up incentives or trimming prices to help maintain sales volume." He went on to say that the May sales number "seems a bit too good to be true." Added NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders, "We don't think the cooling process for housing is over yet, and we wouldn't be surprised to see a downward revision to May's numbers as well as some decline in coming months."
FIRST-TIME HOME BUYERS WILL WAIT TO GET WHAT THEY WANT: A national survey by the not disinterested Wells Fargo Home Mortgage shows many first-time home buyers are unwilling to compromise on certain key elements in the homes they buy and that could prolong the time they spend renting, says Realtor magazine. Among the renters surveyed who say they want to buy a home, four of every 10 are unwilling to buy a home that is smaller than they'd like or one needing significant improvements. Forty-six percent are unwilling to buy at a distance farther from work than they would like, and 70 percent are unwilling to move to a less-desirable neighborhood than they would ideally like. Among other key findings from the survey: 97 percent of first-time home buyers would never go back to renting; 77 percent believe buying their home is the best investment they ever made; nearly 75 percent of first-time buyers believe that the value of their home will go up in 2006; 78 percent of renters believe that it is generally true that people cannot obtain mortgages without perfect credit; 52 percent of renters believe that they personally can't get a mortgage because of credit issues; and 56 percent of renters believe that a down payment of 15 percent or more is required when buying a home.
MORE D.C. NEIGHBORHOODS ARE IN TRANSITION: Housing prices are leveling off in affluent neighborhoods in the District but are escalating significantly in poorer areas, a sign that the city's economic boom is moving from west to east, according to a new study by the Urban Institute, the Washington Post reports. Peter Tatian, a senior research associate at the nonpartisan think tank, said price increases of 18, 19 percent are being recorded in many parts of the city. Housing prices are surging in Ivy City, Southeast around the Navy Yard and many neighborhoods east of the Anacostia River and east of 16th Street NW, while Capitol Hill, Cleveland Park and LeDroit Park appear to be leveling off, the study found. Said Jalal "Jay" Greene, director of the D.C. Department of Housing and Community Development: "Land costs are just cheaper east of the river. You can acquire land and rehab or build new and come out with a product that's in the $350,000 to $400,000 range and that's going to be attractive to a part of the market that can't afford the huge price increases that we've seen elsewhere." In the first three months of this year, the city issued 1,327 building permits, up 135 percent over the same period last year. Nearly all the homes under construction this year and last have been condominiums or apartments, as opposed to single-family housing.
15 HOUSING MARKETS ARE SAID TO BE AT RISK: Homes in about 30 percent of the top 50 U.S. housing markets could lose value, up from about 20 percent a year ago, according to an index prepared by mortgage insurer PMI Group, reports Realtor magazine. The average score of PMI's U.S. Market Risk Index for the top 50 metropolitan statistical areas rose 70 points this quarter to 288 from a year ago, PMI found. The highest risk markets are located in California and the Northeast Boston-to-New York corridor. San Diego claims the top spot with a 60 percent chance that housing prices will decline in two years. Nassau-Suffolk, NY, is No. 2, followed by Santa Ana and Sacramento, Calif. The riskiest states are California, New York, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Maryland, Minnesota, and Nevada.
ADD THESE TO THOSE UNREAD BOOKS ON YOUR NIGHTSTAND: As more consumers buy gadgets like cell phones and MP3 players that need frequent recharging, manufacturers are offering new ways to manage the tangle of cords, devices and outlets, notes the Wall Street Journal. Their solution: A handful of makers are equipping nightstands and coffee tables with dedicated storage spaces to hide cords and electronics from view, and building power strips right into the furniture. Last year, Vaughan Furniture in Galax, Va., introduced a line of bedroom furniture called Guest Quarters, which includes a $300 bedroom nightstand with electrical plugs, USB ports and phone and Internet jacks inside the top drawer. More pieces are coming - for example, Milan-based Danese is bringing out the Kada in October, which will start at about $250, created by industrial designer Yves Behar in San Francisco. The coffee table, which doubles as a stool, has a removable top and an optional power strip hidden inside. Devices can rest inside or on top, while the cords stay below; a small hole in the top allows the wires through.
A THOUSAND HERE, A THOUSAND THERE ADDS UP: Among the 35 million taxpayers who use the home mortgage deduction, the average amount of mortgage interest deducted is $9,650. For those who deducted real estate taxes, the average is more than $3,000. On a national basis, 35 million taxpayers utilized the mortgage interest provision in 2003 and deducted a total of $338 billion, or an average of $9,650 per household. There were 39 million taxpayers in 2003 who deducted an aggregate of $119 billion in real estate taxes. Higher mortgage interest deductions occurred in areas with rapidly growing populations and high house prices. California was the highest with approximately $14,000 per taxpayer. In the 14th congressional district of California, which encompasses parts of San Mateo, Santa Clara and Santa Cruz counties, the average was $35,000 per household. Maybe that's why they call it the Golden State. Besides California, which had a total of $64.9 million, the states with the most mortgage deductions were New York ($19.7 billion), Florida ($17.6 billion), Texas ($16 billion), Illinois ($15.9 billion), New Jersey ($12.9 billion), Michigan ($11.5 billion), Virginia ($11.3 billion), Ohio ($10.9 billion), Pennsylvania ($10.8 billion) and Georgia ($10.6 billion).
WAS THAT ONLY LAST YEAR: Then, sellers had to look at what their neighbors were charging, add 10 percent and wait for the bidding wars to begin, the Wall Street Journal observes with remarkable hindsight. Now that the market has grown uncertain, homeowners are at more of a loss when deciding what price tag to put on their property, the newspaper says. So, in an attempt to attract buyers, some sellers are experimenting with non-traditional strategies for setting prices. Approaches include starting high and cutting the figure every few weeks, dropping the price to a different bracket to attract new shoppers or giving a range of numbers rather than one set figure. In D.C., the Journal reports, home builders are dumping inventory and undercutting existing home prices by offering rebates on closing costs or outright discounts. A changing market can especially highlight the flaws of traditional pricing sources, including Web sites that list comparable home sales and estimates from real-estate agents. Agents may quote too-high prices to get listings, for one, and some Web sites have too few recent listings (within the last six months) to be useful. And while banks can access automated appraisal tools to determine prices, mostly used in calculating a home-equity line of credit or loan, consumers generally can't get those numbers. When times are slow, most agents recommend setting a price that's just at or 5 percent below the market, yet not everyone takes that advice and despair as their property languishes on the market. Consider the tale of Cincinnati professor John Bryan, who tried to price his home carefully. He surfed through local listings online and then waited until May, when real-estate sales are traditionally strongest, to put it on the market. (He bought a new five-bedroom home in January, a slow month for sales.) He finally set the price at $324,000. He received one contract, for $307,000, but that fell through. He has just lowered the price to $299,900, even though he may lose money on the deal after closing costs and commissions. (He bought at $250,000 in 1998 and added $56,000 in renovations, including a new kitchen, air-conditioning system and landscaping.) He hopes the new price will bring his listing to the attention of a new group of Internet shoppers. Mr. Bryan says he is disappointed that he had to drop the price so low, but he thought it was the best solution. "I'm trying to break a psychological barrier," he says. It is not disclosed whether real estate marketing is his specialty, but it's a fair guess that such is not the case. (Okay, so we're biased.)
YOU CAN SCORE SOME ARTS AND CRAFTS: Local and regional artists will be hawking paintings, photographs, jewelry, glassworks and mixed media on Saturday 10 a.m.-5 p.m. at the Bethesda Artist Market, Bethesda Place Plaza, Old Georgetown Road and Woodmont Avenue. It's free, including live music throughout the day. More info at Bethesda.org or 301-215-6660.
SOME PROSPECTIVE BUYERS ARE RENTING INSTEAD: The apartment market in the Washington area has become one of the tightest in the country, and rents are rising briskly as some affluent residents decide to rent rather than buy in what they fear is an inflated real estate market, reports the Washington Post. The surge of well-to-do new renters is attracting developers, and at least 4,000 units that had been planned as condos will instead be leased as rentals over the next two years, according to a new analysis by Delta Associates, an Alexandria real estate information company. As folks lease instead of buy, rents have risen 7 percent in the past year, according to a new analysis by Delta. In suburban Maryland, rents for luxury high-rise apartments rose 11 percent. About 6,500 additional renters leased units in the past year, up from about 4,400 in the previous year, according to Delta Associates. The Washington area has one of the lowest apartment vacancy rates in the nation, down to 1.7 percent from 2.4 percent a year ago, compared with a national average of 5.7 percent. The rent increases are confounding industry expectations that rents would fall because of the huge number of new condominiums, many of which were sold to investors who have put them up for rent. Experts say prices would rise even faster without the additional condos. Even so, rents are expected to rise 5 to 9 percent annually over the next few years, said economist Gregory H. Leisch, chief executive of Delta Associates. More than a half-dozen projects have recently shifted from proposed condo complexes to rental apartments. Delta Associates projects about 2,000 units are being shifted or will remain as rentals this year, with another 2,000 going that route next year. "Every large developer I know is working on a project that was expected to be condo - and that they are now taking back to apartments," said Mark Coletta, regional partner of Fairfield Residential LLC, which is building about a dozen projects in the Washington area. "That's what everyone is doing." The going-rental option is under consideration by the developers of a 183-unit complex at the site of the old National Institute of Dry Cleaning and a 325-unit project called Cameron House, both in Silver Spring. Developers who proceed with condo plans face a flood of competitors. There are some 26,600 condo units being marketed in the Washington region, according to Delta, up from about 23,100 in the same month last year. But there are some 48,000 units moving toward construction in a market where prices, though not falling, have already gone flat. Leisch said that condo developers increase the base price of units so existing owners and new buyers feel confident they are buying into a rising market, but that then they offer concessions - better appliances and upgrades, picking up part of the closing cost - so new buyers think they are getting a good deal. "It's the old shell game," Leisch said. "You increase the price to reduce the price so after all that nonsense, the price is unchanged. Car dealers do it all the time." Car dealers do that? You've been warned.
BETHESDA LOAN PROCESSOR COLLECTS THE WAGES OF SIN: Charged with approving false loan applications and accepting bribes, he faces prison time and fines, according to a statement from the U.S. Attorney's Office for the Western District of Pennsylvania, says Inman News. Marcus Wiseman, 35, has been indicted by a federal grand jury in Pittsburgh on charges of conspiracy, wire fraud and accepting bribes by an employee of a financial institution. While employed at two different financial institutions, Wiseman allegedly processed and approved loans for two other individuals when he knew that the loan applications contained false representations, according to the 10-count indictment. The indictment also alleges that Wiseman accepted payments from those two individuals related to the processing of these fraudulent loans. Wiseman faces up to 275 years in prison, a fine of $9.25 million or both.
ARE WE THERE YET: A recent study by the Brookings Institution and the Center for Trans-Oriented Development concluded that for every $10,000 saved in annual transportation costs, a household can afford to spend about $100,000 more on a home, according to the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. Housing represents 20 percent of the average household budget, while transportation is 19.4 percent. In cities where urban sprawl means many people have long commutes, builders say buyers shrug off commuting 30 minutes and many will drive up to an hour. But that could be changing: A recent survey of almost 14,000 employees by compensation consultant Salary.com found that employees ranked a desirable commute as one of their top three factors for job satisfaction.
LOAN VOLUME TICKS UP: For the week ended June 30, mortgage loan application volume went up 5.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the volume increased 5.9 percent compared with the previous week but dropped 33.3 percent compared with the same week one year earlier. Seasonally adjusted, purchase applications grew by 6.5 percent from the week before, and refinancings increased 5.0 percent. The refinance share of mortgage activity dipped to 35.0 percent of total applications from 35.3 percent the previous week, and the adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share increased to 29.5 percent of total applications from 29.1 percent.
ONE FUND MANAGER FROWNS AT THE HOUSING MARKET: The Wall Street Journal interviewed Kenneth Heebner, who since 1994 has managed the $1.2 billion CGM Realty Fund, which has the best 10-year record of all real-estate-focused mutual funds, for his view of the future. Here's what he said: "A significant decline in prices is coming. A huge buildup of inventories is taking place, and then we're going to see a major [retrenchment] in hot markets in California, Arizona, Florida and up the East Coast. These markets could fall 50 percent from their peaks. I'm worried that more people will default on their mortgages. Risky mortgages such as interest-only and pay-option adjustable-rate mortgages require no principal amortization and in some cases payment of only a fraction of the interest due, have been widely used in the last two years. Some people got 100 percent financing for their homes. It made the tech bubble look like a picnic. When housing is going up rapidly and you can buy far more than your income can support, some people are eager to make big profits by extending themselves financially. As housing prices fall more people will be under water, and these people are just going to walk away from their homes. They are going to say, 'I'm outta here.' You're going to see increasing foreclosures over the next several years. As [home] prices come down, it will create a difficult environment for home builders. We're seeing a huge increase in inventories of unsold homes. The role of incentives in selling a home is increasing so the weakness doesn't show up immediately in list prices. Large price declines will follow in inflated markets. Most people won't have problems and much of the country will be fine. I don't think anything will go wrong in places like Texas, Iowa City or Minneapolis. . . But prices are being set by a minority of participants in the market, [those who have borrowed the most and used the most aggressive types of mortgages]. There will be a loud pop in inflated markets. It's where prices were artificially inflated by people buying houses with risky mortgages that we'll see problems. . . The person who feels the pinch is the person who used an aggressive mortgage and is struggling to meet the mortgage payments."
PENDING SALES OF HOMES ARE TAPERING OFF: The index of pending home sales, a leading gauge for the housing sector, rose slightly in May, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The Pending Home Sales Index, based on contracts signed in May, was up 1.3 percent to a level of 113.4 from an index of 111.9 in April, but was 10.1 percent lower than May 2005. "The slight change in pending home sales indicates the market is beginning to level out," said David Lereah, NAR's chief economist. "This is consistent with our forecast, which is showing a soft landing for the housing sector. We are entering the second phase of the transition period from the housing boom, in which sellers are becoming more realistic about their expectations. Sales are stabilizing and annual home price appreciation is returning to historical norms." The index is derived from pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed and the transaction has not closed; pending sales typically are finalized within a month or two of signing. An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, the first year to be examined, and was the first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales.
DO RIGHT BY YOUR KITCHEN: Consumer Reports says you don't want an island that's bigger than 4' x 10', insufficient cabinets in the wrong place, too little ventilation over the stove or cooktop, insufficient light and poor placement of trash containers.
GOOD FENCES DON'T ALWAYS DO THE JOB, MR. FROST: If the owners of the house next door throw wild parties every weekend and have painted the front door Day-Glo orange, who are you going to call? Money magazine has some suggestions for taming the nightmare next door. Make the right call. For noise issues, call the police. If their dogs run loose, let the animal control department know. If the lawn is littered with political signs, call the zoning board. As for that Day-Glo orange door, unless there's a homeowners association with rules against such things, there may be no recourse. And be nice: Asking politely is more likely to get results than shouting. Use a community mediation center; there are 500 such centers in the United States, according to the National Association for Community Mediation. Finally, go to court. If the neighbor did something like deliberately destroying a fence, take the matter to small claims court, which is inexpensive and doesn't require a lawyer.
MORTGAGE RATES ARE ESSENTIALLY FLAT, ARMS AT A HIGH: The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 6.79 percent for the week, almost unchanged from last week's 6.78 percent. Last year at this time, it was 5.62 percent. The 30-year FRM has not been higher since May 24, 2002, when it averaged 6.81 percent. The 15-year FRM this week was 6.44 percent, also nearly unchanged from last week's 6.43 percent. A year ago, it was 5.20 percent. The 15-year FRM has not been higher since April 12, 2002, when it averaged 6.49 percent. Five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) were unchanged at 6.39 percent this week; they have not been higher since Freddie Mac started tracking at the beginning of last year. A year ago, the five-year ARM averaged 5.19 percent. One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs averaged 5.83 percent this week, with an average 0.8 point, nearly unchanged from last week's 5.82 percent. At this time last year, the one-year ARM was 4.33 percent, and it has not been higher since the week ending June 8, 2001, when it was 5.85 percent. "Since last week's rate increase by the Federal Reserve came as no great surprise, mortgage rates remained nearly unchanged from the previous week," said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. "This is fairly consistent with our economic outlook, which continues to forecast that the interest rate for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will gradually drift upward, but should remain under seven percent for the year."
NEW JERSEY LANDLORD CHARGED WITH DISCRIMINATION: The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development has issued a charge of discrimination against the landlord of a Lakewood apartment complex and two employees for allegedly attempting to segregate tenants based on their religion, race, color and national origin, says Inman News. HUD alleged that Triple H. Realty LLC, owner of the 104-unit, six-building Cottage Manor Apartments, along with the managing agent and onsite superintendent treated non-Jewish tenants differently from Jewish tenants. Specifically, HUD said that non-Jewish Hispanic and African-American tenants were forced to transfer to the buildings located in the rear of the property to allow Jewish families to move into the better-kept apartments in the front of the complex. HUD found in its investigation that the managing agent for Triple H offered Jewish tenants incentives to relocate to Cottage Manor and instructed the onsite superintendent to ask African-American and Hispanic families living in two buildings to transfer to another building so that Jewish tenants would not have to live among African-American and Hispanic families. "The allegations involved in this case smack of the racial covenants and the ugly segregation of the past," said Kim Kendrick, HUD's assistant secretary for Fair Housing and Equal Opportunity. "Forcing families to move because of their religious beliefs is not a part of America today." HUD's investigation found non-Jewish, African-American and Hispanic tenants received little to no apartment maintenance as compared with the maintenance provided to Jewish tenants. For example, Cottage Manor management allegedly refused to exterminate a non-Jewish family's apartment properly and failed to perform adequate maintenance repairs in the family's bedroom and bathroom. The Fair Housing Act makes it illegal to discriminate against persons based on their race, color, national origin, religion, sex, disability or familial status. Housing discrimination charges carry a maximum civil penalty of $11,000 for a first offense.
SALES EASE OF PREVIOUSLY OWNED HOMES: Total existing-home sales - including single-family, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops - dipped 1.2 percent from April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.67 million units and were 6.6 percent below May of last year. Commented David Lereah, NAR's chief economist: "There's now a clear pattern of slower home-sales activity in many higher cost markets, which are more sensitive to rises in interest rates, and higher home sales in moderately priced areas which have experienced job growth. Although mortgage interest rates remain historically low, the uptrend in interest rates this year is affecting those buyers who are at the margins of affordability." The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $230,000 in May, up 6 percent from May 2005, when the median was $217,000. "Overall price appreciation has returned to normal levels as the supply of homes on the market has risen to a balanced range," Lereah said. Total housing inventory levels rose 5.5 percent at the end of May, representing a 6.5-month supply at the current sales pace. Existing condominium and cooperative housing sales rose 1.9 percent in May but were 6.6 percent below the prior May. The median existing condo price was $229,300 in May, up 1.9 percent from a year earlier. Single-family home sales slipped 1.5 percent from April and were 6.6 percent below May 2005. The median existing single-family home price was $229,700 in May, up 6.4 percent from a year ago. Single-family home sales slipped 1.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.82 million in May from 5.91 million in April, and were 6.6 percent below the 6.23 million-unit level in May 2005. The median existing single-family home price was $229,700 in May, up 6.4 percent from a year ago.
NEW-HOME SALES UNEXPECTEDLY BOOM: They rose 4.6 percent between April and May, according to figures reported by the U.S. Census Department. "If the sales gain in today's report holds true, it's likely due at least partly to the extra efforts that builders are making to attract the many potential buyers who are still out there," noted David Pressly, president of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). "Many are stepping up incentives or trimming prices to help maintain sales volume." He went on to say that the May sales number "seems a bit too good to be true." Added NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders, "We don't think the cooling process for housing is over yet, and we wouldn't be surprised to see a downward revision to May's numbers as well as some decline in coming months."
FIRST-TIME HOME BUYERS WILL WAIT TO GET WHAT THEY WANT: A national survey by the not disinterested Wells Fargo Home Mortgage shows many first-time home buyers are unwilling to compromise on certain key elements in the homes they buy and that could prolong the time they spend renting, says Realtor magazine. Among the renters surveyed who say they want to buy a home, four of every 10 are unwilling to buy a home that is smaller than they'd like or one needing significant improvements. Forty-six percent are unwilling to buy at a distance farther from work than they would like, and 70 percent are unwilling to move to a less-desirable neighborhood than they would ideally like. Among other key findings from the survey: 97 percent of first-time home buyers would never go back to renting; 77 percent believe buying their home is the best investment they ever made; nearly 75 percent of first-time buyers believe that the value of their home will go up in 2006; 78 percent of renters believe that it is generally true that people cannot obtain mortgages without perfect credit; 52 percent of renters believe that they personally can't get a mortgage because of credit issues; and 56 percent of renters believe that a down payment of 15 percent or more is required when buying a home.
MORE D.C. NEIGHBORHOODS ARE IN TRANSITION: Housing prices are leveling off in affluent neighborhoods in the District but are escalating significantly in poorer areas, a sign that the city's economic boom is moving from west to east, according to a new study by the Urban Institute, the Washington Post reports. Peter Tatian, a senior research associate at the nonpartisan think tank, said price increases of 18, 19 percent are being recorded in many parts of the city. Housing prices are surging in Ivy City, Southeast around the Navy Yard and many neighborhoods east of the Anacostia River and east of 16th Street NW, while Capitol Hill, Cleveland Park and LeDroit Park appear to be leveling off, the study found. Said Jalal "Jay" Greene, director of the D.C. Department of Housing and Community Development: "Land costs are just cheaper east of the river. You can acquire land and rehab or build new and come out with a product that's in the $350,000 to $400,000 range and that's going to be attractive to a part of the market that can't afford the huge price increases that we've seen elsewhere." In the first three months of this year, the city issued 1,327 building permits, up 135 percent over the same period last year. Nearly all the homes under construction this year and last have been condominiums or apartments, as opposed to single-family housing.
15 HOUSING MARKETS ARE SAID TO BE AT RISK: Homes in about 30 percent of the top 50 U.S. housing markets could lose value, up from about 20 percent a year ago, according to an index prepared by mortgage insurer PMI Group, reports Realtor magazine. The average score of PMI's U.S. Market Risk Index for the top 50 metropolitan statistical areas rose 70 points this quarter to 288 from a year ago, PMI found. The highest risk markets are located in California and the Northeast Boston-to-New York corridor. San Diego claims the top spot with a 60 percent chance that housing prices will decline in two years. Nassau-Suffolk, NY, is No. 2, followed by Santa Ana and Sacramento, Calif. The riskiest states are California, New York, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Maryland, Minnesota, and Nevada.
ADD THESE TO THOSE UNREAD BOOKS ON YOUR NIGHTSTAND: As more consumers buy gadgets like cell phones and MP3 players that need frequent recharging, manufacturers are offering new ways to manage the tangle of cords, devices and outlets, notes the Wall Street Journal. Their solution: A handful of makers are equipping nightstands and coffee tables with dedicated storage spaces to hide cords and electronics from view, and building power strips right into the furniture. Last year, Vaughan Furniture in Galax, Va., introduced a line of bedroom furniture called Guest Quarters, which includes a $300 bedroom nightstand with electrical plugs, USB ports and phone and Internet jacks inside the top drawer. More pieces are coming - for example, Milan-based Danese is bringing out the Kada in October, which will start at about $250, created by industrial designer Yves Behar in San Francisco. The coffee table, which doubles as a stool, has a removable top and an optional power strip hidden inside. Devices can rest inside or on top, while the cords stay below; a small hole in the top allows the wires through.
A THOUSAND HERE, A THOUSAND THERE ADDS UP: Among the 35 million taxpayers who use the home mortgage deduction, the average amount of mortgage interest deducted is $9,650. For those who deducted real estate taxes, the average is more than $3,000. On a national basis, 35 million taxpayers utilized the mortgage interest provision in 2003 and deducted a total of $338 billion, or an average of $9,650 per household. There were 39 million taxpayers in 2003 who deducted an aggregate of $119 billion in real estate taxes. Higher mortgage interest deductions occurred in areas with rapidly growing populations and high house prices. California was the highest with approximately $14,000 per taxpayer. In the 14th congressional district of California, which encompasses parts of San Mateo, Santa Clara and Santa Cruz counties, the average was $35,000 per household. Maybe that's why they call it the Golden State. Besides California, which had a total of $64.9 million, the states with the most mortgage deductions were New York ($19.7 billion), Florida ($17.6 billion), Texas ($16 billion), Illinois ($15.9 billion), New Jersey ($12.9 billion), Michigan ($11.5 billion), Virginia ($11.3 billion), Ohio ($10.9 billion), Pennsylvania ($10.8 billion) and Georgia ($10.6 billion).
WAS THAT ONLY LAST YEAR: Then, sellers had to look at what their neighbors were charging, add 10 percent and wait for the bidding wars to begin, the Wall Street Journal observes with remarkable hindsight. Now that the market has grown uncertain, homeowners are at more of a loss when deciding what price tag to put on their property, the newspaper says. So, in an attempt to attract buyers, some sellers are experimenting with non-traditional strategies for setting prices. Approaches include starting high and cutting the figure every few weeks, dropping the price to a different bracket to attract new shoppers or giving a range of numbers rather than one set figure. In D.C., the Journal reports, home builders are dumping inventory and undercutting existing home prices by offering rebates on closing costs or outright discounts. A changing market can especially highlight the flaws of traditional pricing sources, including Web sites that list comparable home sales and estimates from real-estate agents. Agents may quote too-high prices to get listings, for one, and some Web sites have too few recent listings (within the last six months) to be useful. And while banks can access automated appraisal tools to determine prices, mostly used in calculating a home-equity line of credit or loan, consumers generally can't get those numbers. When times are slow, most agents recommend setting a price that's just at or 5 percent below the market, yet not everyone takes that advice and despair as their property languishes on the market. Consider the tale of Cincinnati professor John Bryan, who tried to price his home carefully. He surfed through local listings online and then waited until May, when real-estate sales are traditionally strongest, to put it on the market. (He bought a new five-bedroom home in January, a slow month for sales.) He finally set the price at $324,000. He received one contract, for $307,000, but that fell through. He has just lowered the price to $299,900, even though he may lose money on the deal after closing costs and commissions. (He bought at $250,000 in 1998 and added $56,000 in renovations, including a new kitchen, air-conditioning system and landscaping.) He hopes the new price will bring his listing to the attention of a new group of Internet shoppers. Mr. Bryan says he is disappointed that he had to drop the price so low, but he thought it was the best solution. "I'm trying to break a psychological barrier," he says. It is not disclosed whether real estate marketing is his specialty, but it's a fair guess that such is not the case. (Okay, so we're biased.)
YOU CAN SCORE SOME ARTS AND CRAFTS: Local and regional artists will be hawking paintings, photographs, jewelry, glassworks and mixed media on Saturday 10 a.m.-5 p.m. at the Bethesda Artist Market, Bethesda Place Plaza, Old Georgetown Road and Woodmont Avenue. It's free, including live music throughout the day. More info at Bethesda.org or 301-215-6660.
SOME PROSPECTIVE BUYERS ARE RENTING INSTEAD: The apartment market in the Washington area has become one of the tightest in the country, and rents are rising briskly as some affluent residents decide to rent rather than buy in what they fear is an inflated real estate market, reports the Washington Post. The surge of well-to-do new renters is attracting developers, and at least 4,000 units that had been planned as condos will instead be leased as rentals over the next two years, according to a new analysis by Delta Associates, an Alexandria real estate information company. As folks lease instead of buy, rents have risen 7 percent in the past year, according to a new analysis by Delta. In suburban Maryland, rents for luxury high-rise apartments rose 11 percent. About 6,500 additional renters leased units in the past year, up from about 4,400 in the previous year, according to Delta Associates. The Washington area has one of the lowest apartment vacancy rates in the nation, down to 1.7 percent from 2.4 percent a year ago, compared with a national average of 5.7 percent. The rent increases are confounding industry expectations that rents would fall because of the huge number of new condominiums, many of which were sold to investors who have put them up for rent. Experts say prices would rise even faster without the additional condos. Even so, rents are expected to rise 5 to 9 percent annually over the next few years, said economist Gregory H. Leisch, chief executive of Delta Associates. More than a half-dozen projects have recently shifted from proposed condo complexes to rental apartments. Delta Associates projects about 2,000 units are being shifted or will remain as rentals this year, with another 2,000 going that route next year. "Every large developer I know is working on a project that was expected to be condo - and that they are now taking back to apartments," said Mark Coletta, regional partner of Fairfield Residential LLC, which is building about a dozen projects in the Washington area. "That's what everyone is doing." The going-rental option is under consideration by the developers of a 183-unit complex at the site of the old National Institute of Dry Cleaning and a 325-unit project called Cameron House, both in Silver Spring. Developers who proceed with condo plans face a flood of competitors. There are some 26,600 condo units being marketed in the Washington region, according to Delta, up from about 23,100 in the same month last year. But there are some 48,000 units moving toward construction in a market where prices, though not falling, have already gone flat. Leisch said that condo developers increase the base price of units so existing owners and new buyers feel confident they are buying into a rising market, but that then they offer concessions - better appliances and upgrades, picking up part of the closing cost - so new buyers think they are getting a good deal. "It's the old shell game," Leisch said. "You increase the price to reduce the price so after all that nonsense, the price is unchanged. Car dealers do it all the time." Car dealers do that? You've been warned.
BETHESDA LOAN PROCESSOR COLLECTS THE WAGES OF SIN: Charged with approving false loan applications and accepting bribes, he faces prison time and fines, according to a statement from the U.S. Attorney's Office for the Western District of Pennsylvania, says Inman News. Marcus Wiseman, 35, has been indicted by a federal grand jury in Pittsburgh on charges of conspiracy, wire fraud and accepting bribes by an employee of a financial institution. While employed at two different financial institutions, Wiseman allegedly processed and approved loans for two other individuals when he knew that the loan applications contained false representations, according to the 10-count indictment. The indictment also alleges that Wiseman accepted payments from those two individuals related to the processing of these fraudulent loans. Wiseman faces up to 275 years in prison, a fine of $9.25 million or both.
ARE WE THERE YET: A recent study by the Brookings Institution and the Center for Trans-Oriented Development concluded that for every $10,000 saved in annual transportation costs, a household can afford to spend about $100,000 more on a home, according to the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. Housing represents 20 percent of the average household budget, while transportation is 19.4 percent. In cities where urban sprawl means many people have long commutes, builders say buyers shrug off commuting 30 minutes and many will drive up to an hour. But that could be changing: A recent survey of almost 14,000 employees by compensation consultant Salary.com found that employees ranked a desirable commute as one of their top three factors for job satisfaction.
LOAN VOLUME TICKS UP: For the week ended June 30, mortgage loan application volume went up 5.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the volume increased 5.9 percent compared with the previous week but dropped 33.3 percent compared with the same week one year earlier. Seasonally adjusted, purchase applications grew by 6.5 percent from the week before, and refinancings increased 5.0 percent. The refinance share of mortgage activity dipped to 35.0 percent of total applications from 35.3 percent the previous week, and the adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share increased to 29.5 percent of total applications from 29.1 percent.
ONE FUND MANAGER FROWNS AT THE HOUSING MARKET: The Wall Street Journal interviewed Kenneth Heebner, who since 1994 has managed the $1.2 billion CGM Realty Fund, which has the best 10-year record of all real-estate-focused mutual funds, for his view of the future. Here's what he said: "A significant decline in prices is coming. A huge buildup of inventories is taking place, and then we're going to see a major [retrenchment] in hot markets in California, Arizona, Florida and up the East Coast. These markets could fall 50 percent from their peaks. I'm worried that more people will default on their mortgages. Risky mortgages such as interest-only and pay-option adjustable-rate mortgages require no principal amortization and in some cases payment of only a fraction of the interest due, have been widely used in the last two years. Some people got 100 percent financing for their homes. It made the tech bubble look like a picnic. When housing is going up rapidly and you can buy far more than your income can support, some people are eager to make big profits by extending themselves financially. As housing prices fall more people will be under water, and these people are just going to walk away from their homes. They are going to say, 'I'm outta here.' You're going to see increasing foreclosures over the next several years. As [home] prices come down, it will create a difficult environment for home builders. We're seeing a huge increase in inventories of unsold homes. The role of incentives in selling a home is increasing so the weakness doesn't show up immediately in list prices. Large price declines will follow in inflated markets. Most people won't have problems and much of the country will be fine. I don't think anything will go wrong in places like Texas, Iowa City or Minneapolis. . . But prices are being set by a minority of participants in the market, [those who have borrowed the most and used the most aggressive types of mortgages]. There will be a loud pop in inflated markets. It's where prices were artificially inflated by people buying houses with risky mortgages that we'll see problems. . . The person who feels the pinch is the person who used an aggressive mortgage and is struggling to meet the mortgage payments."
PENDING SALES OF HOMES ARE TAPERING OFF: The index of pending home sales, a leading gauge for the housing sector, rose slightly in May, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The Pending Home Sales Index, based on contracts signed in May, was up 1.3 percent to a level of 113.4 from an index of 111.9 in April, but was 10.1 percent lower than May 2005. "The slight change in pending home sales indicates the market is beginning to level out," said David Lereah, NAR's chief economist. "This is consistent with our forecast, which is showing a soft landing for the housing sector. We are entering the second phase of the transition period from the housing boom, in which sellers are becoming more realistic about their expectations. Sales are stabilizing and annual home price appreciation is returning to historical norms." The index is derived from pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed and the transaction has not closed; pending sales typically are finalized within a month or two of signing. An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, the first year to be examined, and was the first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales.
DO RIGHT BY YOUR KITCHEN: Consumer Reports says you don't want an island that's bigger than 4' x 10', insufficient cabinets in the wrong place, too little ventilation over the stove or cooktop, insufficient light and poor placement of trash containers.
GOOD FENCES DON'T ALWAYS DO THE JOB, MR. FROST: If the owners of the house next door throw wild parties every weekend and have painted the front door Day-Glo orange, who are you going to call? Money magazine has some suggestions for taming the nightmare next door. Make the right call. For noise issues, call the police. If their dogs run loose, let the animal control department know. If the lawn is littered with political signs, call the zoning board. As for that Day-Glo orange door, unless there's a homeowners association with rules against such things, there may be no recourse. And be nice: Asking politely is more likely to get results than shouting. Use a community mediation center; there are 500 such centers in the United States, according to the National Association for Community Mediation. Finally, go to court. If the neighbor did something like deliberately destroying a fence, take the matter to small claims court, which is inexpensive and doesn't require a lawyer.
MORTGAGE RATES ARE ESSENTIALLY FLAT, ARMS AT A HIGH: The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 6.79 percent for the week, almost unchanged from last week's 6.78 percent. Last year at this time, it was 5.62 percent. The 30-year FRM has not been higher since May 24, 2002, when it averaged 6.81 percent. The 15-year FRM this week was 6.44 percent, also nearly unchanged from last week's 6.43 percent. A year ago, it was 5.20 percent. The 15-year FRM has not been higher since April 12, 2002, when it averaged 6.49 percent. Five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) were unchanged at 6.39 percent this week; they have not been higher since Freddie Mac started tracking at the beginning of last year. A year ago, the five-year ARM averaged 5.19 percent. One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs averaged 5.83 percent this week, with an average 0.8 point, nearly unchanged from last week's 5.82 percent. At this time last year, the one-year ARM was 4.33 percent, and it has not been higher since the week ending June 8, 2001, when it was 5.85 percent. "Since last week's rate increase by the Federal Reserve came as no great surprise, mortgage rates remained nearly unchanged from the previous week," said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. "This is fairly consistent with our economic outlook, which continues to forecast that the interest rate for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will gradually drift upward, but should remain under seven percent for the year."
NEW JERSEY LANDLORD CHARGED WITH DISCRIMINATION: The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development has issued a charge of discrimination against the landlord of a Lakewood apartment complex and two employees for allegedly attempting to segregate tenants based on their religion, race, color and national origin, says Inman News. HUD alleged that Triple H. Realty LLC, owner of the 104-unit, six-building Cottage Manor Apartments, along with the managing agent and onsite superintendent treated non-Jewish tenants differently from Jewish tenants. Specifically, HUD said that non-Jewish Hispanic and African-American tenants were forced to transfer to the buildings located in the rear of the property to allow Jewish families to move into the better-kept apartments in the front of the complex. HUD found in its investigation that the managing agent for Triple H offered Jewish tenants incentives to relocate to Cottage Manor and instructed the onsite superintendent to ask African-American and Hispanic families living in two buildings to transfer to another building so that Jewish tenants would not have to live among African-American and Hispanic families. "The allegations involved in this case smack of the racial covenants and the ugly segregation of the past," said Kim Kendrick, HUD's assistant secretary for Fair Housing and Equal Opportunity. "Forcing families to move because of their religious beliefs is not a part of America today." HUD's investigation found non-Jewish, African-American and Hispanic tenants received little to no apartment maintenance as compared with the maintenance provided to Jewish tenants. For example, Cottage Manor management allegedly refused to exterminate a non-Jewish family's apartment properly and failed to perform adequate maintenance repairs in the family's bedroom and bathroom. The Fair Housing Act makes it illegal to discriminate against persons based on their race, color, national origin, religion, sex, disability or familial status. Housing discrimination charges carry a maximum civil penalty of $11,000 for a first offense.
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